welcome, everybody. our "starting point" this morning, we wait for those final economic hurdles before tuesday's election. it's the october johns report from the government will be released in just about 90 mosts. both the obama campaign and the romney campaign hope the numbers will boost those economic arguments they've been making through this campaign and right into the final days of the race. we have complete coverage of what to expect this morning. let's begin with christine. she's got a look at what we could see. >> could see an unemployment rate that kicks up to about 7.9%. that's the forecast of economists surveyed by cnn money, soledad. 125,000 jobs added overall. for net new job creation. the important thing here is the trend. and it is the trend that has been so important to american families. american workers. and the two political campaigns, quite frankly. the president took office with unemployment rate at 7.8%, soledad. and then embarked on a massive stimulus plan and unemployment rate kept rising to 10%.

but then started to come down. started to come down and is now back at 7.8%. and we got that number, of course, last month. and that was a big surprise overall. you look at the job creation. this is something that the obama administration talks about a lot. the president took office, there were losing hundreds of thousands of jobs at the end of the bush administration into the obama administration. and now the fight has been, the political fight has been over the durability of the recovery and jobs since then. when you go to the right of that chart you can see we have been adding jobs now for two years but we haven't been adding necessarily enough jobs to every month keep up with the increase of people in the working-age population, and to recover all of those jobs that had been lost. so that's where we stand right now. 125,000 jobs is the forecast for today. about an hour and a half, and 7.9% is the unemployment rate. it's the last big hurdle before the election. the last big piece of economic news for both campaigns, and for people to weigh before they make the decision on who to vote for. >> it's not just economic news.

it has all the political implications. especially in the final days. that chart we've seen on the political campaign on both sides of the debate. christine, thank you. obviously going to stick around with us all morning as we wait to get the numbers. let's go to ali velshi, our chief business correspondent. he's in toledo, ohio this morning. no surprise on the ohio thing. absolutely, positively, critical state. >> absolutely. absolutely positively dead heat. the same number of people on both sides, statistically, and the same number of people split in the middle. there's a very small slice of undecideds here. they are waiting to see which of these two presidential candidates can deliver on the promises they've made. the promises are almost identical when it comes to the number one issue, and that is job creation. both presidents have said that 12 million jobs will be created under their watch in four years. that's 250,000 jobs a month. you heard christine saying our expectation for this morning is that 125,000 jobs were created in october. if the number is substantially higher than that you will hear

president obama saying all the jobs lost under his watch have been -- have been -- have come back, and more, obviously. what you'll hear mitt romney saying is that the -- those jobs, the quality of those jobs is not what they were before they were lost. they tend to be more part-time, lower-paying jobs, fewer benefits, and that he can do better. the question is whether or not a presidential candidate can ultimately influence private sector hiring. when you see that number, 125,000 or whatever it is at 8:30, you'll notice a portion of that will be government higher, a small portion, 10,000 or 15,000 jobs. most hiring in this country is private sector hiring. mitt romney's argument is that the private sector won't hire under president obama because they're fearful of higher taxes. they're fearful of all those kinds of things. president obama makes the argument that demand, more people working, will create demand and that will create more hiring. so this thing going to be relevant for about ten minutes and after that it's going to devolve into spin for the rest

of the weekend. >> which means it will be relevant in a completely different way all the way until sometime tuesday night for sure. ali velshi also going to stick around with us all morning. we've been talking, of course, about jobs, jobs, jobs. as ali said the race there in ohio, virtual dead heat. across the nation, much of the nation as well, president obama, mitt romney, are going to fan out across the battleground states over the next four days. both candidates will spend lots of time in ohio, because as ali pointed out, it's a dead heat. president, three events there. he's going to be talking jobs, and a national public radio poll 57% of those surveyed said economic issues are the most likely to affect their vote. cnn's brienne into keilar is live in grove city, ohio, this morning. good morning. >> good morning to you, cole dad. we do know that president obama will be addressing those jobs numbers when he speaks here. actually i should say, we are in hilliard, ohio, very close to grove city, just outside of columbus. so we know that he'll be addressing those jobs numbers. the big complication for him would be if the numbers were

worse than expected. especially if they tick up to 8%, because that was an important sort of mental hurdle that the country cleared last month. and then for mitt romney, obviously, the complication would be if they're better than expected, because he's been making the argument that this economic recovery is not on the right path. and also, that it's not happening quickly enough. we're not really expecting the messages from these two candidates to deviate. and the other thing you have to consider is, we're in ohio. this is where the election could hinge. and one of the factors in the political landscape here has been that the unemployment rate is significantly lower than the national average. 7% here. so you could argue that barring some dramatic swing from what is expected, that it may not really matter. it may be continuing to be a lot about the auto bailout, which president obama supported, and which he's going to be touting here today in this event in hilliard, ohio, soledad. >> brianna keilar for us in hilliard, ohio.

thank you, appreciate it. want to get to grover norquist. he is the president of americans for tax reform. he's also the author of debacle, obama's war on jobs and growth and what we can now do to regain our future. thank you for being with us. >> good to be with you. >> thank you, appreciate that. you heard some of the predictions with christine starting out with those actual numbers. what do you think we're going to see today? >> the key number to look for is not simply the unemployment rate, which is the number of people who are unemployed divided by the number of people who are looking for work. take a look at the number of people who've left the workforce. in 2009, more people were looking for work and in the works for. if that number had been consistent the unemployment rate today would be 10.7%. the problem we have is that people have given up and left the workforce. there are fewer people in the workforce today than when obama took office. >> so let me stop you there for a second, grover. i think we have that chart. let's throw that up on the screen if we have it. christine, what does that number

of people who've left the workforce number look at? >> i think you're looking at the labor force participation rate. >> correct. >> these are people who have given up and who have left. they've left the workforce. that number is 63.6% and it is the lowest since 1981. so it's something we've heard candidate mitt romney, governor romney talk about on the campaign trail. we talked -- we've heard a lot of conservatives talk about, if you looked at the unemployment rate, and used that as your basis, we'd have an unemployment rate much higher. that one hasn't been budging. so this has been a standard sort of talking point for romney supporters. you have an unemployment rate that is coming down. do you acknowledge there are these signs of job creation, and the unemployment rate at least are moving in the right direction? >> look, the unemployment rate moving in a lower number is good, if it's moving because more people are working. but last month, where obama was bragging that the number got a little better, the reason it got better is not because of the number of people getting jobs

but the number of people who have left the workforce. the ratio got better, because of the people who were not looking for wok. that's very unhealthy. during normal recovery, the workforce participation goes up. as people say, hey, there are jobs, i wasn't looking, i'm going to go back into the workforce. this recovery is the first one in ordered history where people leave the workforce during a period of technical growth. >> besides looking at that number. i know we'll be talking as soon as these numbers come out, we'll be crunching those different elements of this report. i want to talk to you about the various op-eds that are out. president obama wrote an op-ed, governor romney wrote an op-ed for cnn.com, wrote it for us. i want to read you a little chunk of them. governor romney, together with paul ryan has put forward an economic recompry plan consisting of five central elements that will in four years create 12 million jobs. as you know, there are many people who take exception to

that. he goes on to list those five elements. i'll do them in a nutshell, achieve north american energy independence, retrain the workforce for jobs now, make trade work for america, restore fiscal sanity, we'll champion small business. can this, in fact, in four years, you believe, decree aeight 12 million jobs? and i'll warn you, ali velshi is going to say no possible way. go ahead. >> well, we don't have to guess. we can look when ronald reagan had a recession, which had double digit inflation, 20% interest rate, in many ways much more devastating, higher unemployment, much more devastating than the one that obama has, when you went out three years plus, the same length of time that obama's had since we've been in technical recovery, the economy grew 20%. obama has grown 7%. a third the strength of reagan's. job creation much higher under reagan. what did reagan do? all the things that romney and

ryan are talking about. lower marginal tax rates. obama wants to raise them. less spending. obama added $5 trillion of debt. we're supposed to have 6% unemployment, according to obama, if he spent $5 trillion. that's not what we got. we know that obama's plan put us in the worst position, fewer people working. fewer people in the workforce. people have given up on job opportunities. very weak economic growth. >> you know, i think a lot of voters, too, are sort of frustrated by the lack of anybody in congress working to the. and john earlier you were talking about the severe partisanship. and some people point to you in this taxpayer protection pledge, which i have on me. i don't know if people can see it clearly. you have everyone sign for the house of reps, i pledge i will oppose any and all efforts to increase the marginal income tax to oppose any net reduction or elimination of deductions. this one is for the senate. this one is for governors. this one is for state

legislatures. you have a whole list, mostly republicans, almost every republican, who has signed onto that. and people who say when you start from there you create an environment where it's impossible to have any kind of negotiation. if you're ready to sign to say, i will not, you're in a problem already. >> the problem we have is the government's spending too much money. so raising taxes isn't part of solving the problem of reducing overspending. matter of fact, if you raise taxes we know from history, in '82, the democrats said if you raise taxes it will help you cut spending. taxes were raised. spending went up, not down. in '90 the democrats in congress promised president bush, if you raise taxes we'll cut spending. taxes were raised. spending was not. >> but didn't the president -- forgive me. let me just walk through this slowly. didn't president bush cut taxes, right? and christine jump in and help me out if i'm getting something wrong, and if you look at, and president bush cut taxes and we went from having a surplus to having a deficit.

so i think there's -- i mean if you look at the tax policy center they basically said it's very hard to see evidence of exactly how raising taxes figures into all of this. >> several things. i was talking about president bush 41 in 1990 when they raised taxes, and it was supposed to help us reduce the deficit, in fact, congress just spent all the money that came in. when poll significances raise taxes, whether it's in california, we've seen the devastation there. illinois, we've seen the damage to that economy, maryland. when politicians raise taxes instead of cutting spending, you have lousy economic growth. those states, and you can compare either the reagan recovery, lower taxes, spending restraints, less regulation versus the very weak obama economy, wore where he did all the opposite things of reagan and got everything that an economist would tell you gets bad in an economy. let's compare state by state. california versus texas. illinois versus florida.

you cut taxes you get more growth. you raise taxes you put people out of work and you bankrupt your state. >> we have you for the whole two hours so i want to get to a quick piece of president obama's op-ed because we already did governor romney's op-ed, i'll have you comment on it and then we're going to continue to chat about this all morning. he writes by the end of president clinton's second term our economy created 23 million new jobs, incomes rose, poverty fell, deficits became the biggest surplus in history. and what his point in part of this op-ed is if you look to the last democrat who he says he's shaping himself in that, in that image, if you will, you know, he was successful in that kind of a strategy. the first two years of president clinton's administration weren't terribly interesting. the economy didn't do very well. however, in november of 1994, when the republicans won the house and the senate, all of a sudden, the stock market started going up, job creation started going up, we got a cut in the capital gains tax, a cut in the capital gains tax, and all of

clinton's spending programs were eliminated. all of the things he was going to spend money on. he was planning on having deficits $200 billion a year, if you look at his budget from '93 and '94. what changed was he lost control of congress and all of his spending plans were taken off the table. that's when the economy turned around. it's a lot more question of who's in congress than who the president is. and they're two very different parts of the clinton administration. one when he had a democratic congress. not a very good economy. one when the republicans took the house and senate. that's when the economy took over. >> we're going to continue, obviously, we have all morning to talk about this as we wait for these big job numbers with huge political implications to come out. grover, thank you for talking with us. you're going to be sticking around with us, as well. ali velshi in ohio is going to be joining our conversation, too. christine and john up here as well. everybody is on the conversation. we showed you a little bit of each op-ed. you can take a look online, go

to cnn.com and read the entire op-ed from president obama. read the entire op-ed from governor romney. it's only on cnn.com. other stories making news, john berman's got there. >> so much going on today. it's been nearly four days since superstorm sandy slammed into the east coast and this morning in many areas, it is still a dire situation. the death toll from the storm has been raised to 92 people in the u.s. 3.5 million customers along the eastern seaboard are still without power this morning. and the economic losses are just staggering. an estimated $30 billion to $50 billion. right now rescue agencies are trying to get food and water to those in need. gasoline, in very short supply in parts of new york and new jersey. long, long lines. now a common sight at many gas stations in the region. people waiting two, three, four hours to get to the pumps. sometimes just to find there's no gas left and yes anger is starting to spill over. some gas station owners have been closing their businesses to let tempers cool down. they're calling in police for help. it's not a good situation.

homeland security secretary janet napolitano and top fema officials will visit staten island today to get a look at the devastation there caused by hurricane sandy. yesterday police found the bodies of two young boys, ages 2 and 4, who got swept away by floodwaters. their mother says she begged a man in a nearby house for help but he wouldn't come outside or let her in. the homeowner says he thought there was a man outside his door. >> he didn't ask to come in. he asked me to come out and help him. >> did you help him? >> what could i do to help him? i'm wearing the same clothes. i have these shorts on. i had a pair of shorts on with flip-flops and i was going to come out -- >> you did not see a woman and two children? >> no, sir. >> you saw a man? >> yes, sir. >> allen said after he heard the noise from outside he sat with his back against the kitchen door all night long. clint eastwood talking about his empty chair speech at the republican national convention, where he dressed down an invisible president obama. that empty chair. last night sean hannity from fox news asked eastwood where that magical idea came from.

>> the chair idea, that just came out of the air, you know. i was sitting there and the guy behind the -- the stage said here you want to sit down. and i said no but why don't you take that out and sit it next to the podium. he said oh, you want to sit down? i said no, no, just put it there. at the time i thought, that was really stupid, why did i do that. then afterwards, you know, people decided to come up and say, well that was fun. >> well there you go. the vice president shifting from campaign mode to comedy mode last night. he rattled off david letterman's top ten list and here are three of the top ten good things about voting early, this according to joe biden. >> single and looking to mingle? find that special someone in the early voting line. if you vote early you don't have to pay taxes. i'm sorry, i'm being told that's not accurate. honestly, don't you want this election over with already? >> yes, we do. >> i got to say, sometimes it is

hard to tell when the vice president is joking. >> i thought the same thing, as well. does he know this is comedy? okay. thanks, john, ahead this morning on "starting point," you saw some of the images that john is talking about, people desperate for gas, in the devastating aftermath of hurricane sandy. we're going to talk to rob marciano this morning on the ground updating that story and much more. jack, you're a little boring. boring. boring. [ jack ] after lauren broke up with me, i went to the citi private pass page and decided to be...not boring. that's how i met marilyn... giada... really good. yes! [ jack ] ...and alicia. ♪ this girl is on fire [ male announcer ] use any citi® card to get the benefits of private pass. more concerts. more events. more experiences. [ jack ] hey, who's boring now? [ male announcer ] get more access with a citi card. [ crowd cheering, mouse clicks ]

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happened in queens, when the guy tried to cut in the line. the shortages might not end for another week. rob marciano is following all this rush. really getting ugly, isn't it, rob? >> it is. day four now, into this crisis, and food and water and other supplies, certainly at a minimum. but the gasoline situation for people who are just trying to get out and around, go to work and such, is certainly becoming a bad deal. gas stations that don't have power obviously can't pump gas. but the ones that do have power don't have the gas because jersey shut down a lot of their gasoline refineries before the storm, and many of those were damaged. so, governor chris christie has actually said, hey, for the first time, we can buy gasoline from out of state to try to help this supply situation, but damage done for the most part. we tried to track down a gas station. had to go to 145th street, by the time we got there, we were almost out of gas. lines a half mile to a mile long.

here's what it looked and sounded like yesterday in upper manhattan. >> i got to make three trips to this gas station. >> got to fill it up three times. >> just to go home. >> and still might not make it. >> any other gas station with gas? >> no other gas station with gas. >> i'm broke down. i can't get out. no gas. >> so there you go. cars are stranded on the roadways and may very well limit the number of cars that can be coming over this bridge. the brooklyn bridge, this blockade set up because if you have less than three people in your car they turn you around and ship you back to brooklyn. there will be a lot of foot traffic as there was yesterday. just one more thing, soledad, is the gas. and it's turning out to be a very, very big deal. >> huge deal, it's what everybody is talking about this morning. all right, rob, thank you very much. still ahead this morning on "starting point," they're safe but our key to the election and the president candidates are vying very hard for their votes. how will people in swing states react to this new jobs report? we'll check those numbers in

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welcome back, everybody. we're welcoming sheila bair to our "starting point" team. me is the former chairwoman of the fdic. author of "bull by the horns." we're waiting for the october employment report numbers. they'll come in right at 8:30 this morning. we're going to talk a little bit about how that could have political implications. obviously, ohio, florida, virginia, it's a very big deal. sheila, let me start with where you think these numbers are going to come in? >> i think, christine is probably right. i think for undecided voters it's probably still going to be a big deal. there aren't many undecided voters yet but they're important

in a race that's close. since the political issue is really all about the economy, you know, a slight bump up in unemployment probably is not going to help mr. obama. >> is that because of the spin or do you think voters look at what's happening in their state? do you really think people watch the number and say now i know how to vote, it's picked up? really? >> i think if you're still undecided you're going to be looking at anything. any kind of signal of what's going on with the economy. absolutely what's happening with your neighbors is simply the most important. >> swing states? >> in swing states going to be looking at what's going on with them. if they're undecided they're looking to whether the economy is really improving or not. >> we're going to talk about it all morning. obviously not only is the jobs numbers as christine's pointing out there are huge implications politically. they're expecting those numbers right at 8:30 this morning. we've got to take a short break. still ahead going to talk about jobs. going to talk about this report. and we're also going to ask christine to update us a little bit on what to expect, and not just the number to expect but really what's happening behind that number. here's a question, why does the

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welcome back, everybody. you're watching "starting point." we're one hour away from the release of the government's october jobs report. it is the last major economic report that will be due out before tuesday's election. and whatever the numbers are, there's no question they will have an impact on the presidential race. christine romans is watching this very closely. let's talk about jobs in america right now. >> all right, jobs in america right now. we're expecting, you know, 7.9% for the unemployment rate. 125,000 jobs created overall. and what you're going to hear a lot of people talk about, especially on the republican side, is the underemployment rate. this is sometimes called the real employment rate. it's 14.7%. this is people who are

unemployed. people who are discouraged. people who have stopped looking for work in the past year but would look if they thought that there was something out there for them. and people who are employed part-time for economic reasons. you hear sometimes the real unemployment rate of 14.7%. but it still depends on where you live, quite frankly. and across the country in the swing states, the differences are pretty dramatic. you look at nevada, for example. 11.8% unemployment. look at colorado. it has 8% unemployment. you look at some of the other swing states where the unemployment rate has been drifting lower. ohio, for example, a very big, important state on tuesday. 7% unemployment. and when you look at ohio's jobless rate you can see that it has been coming down a little bit, and the polls, john weigh in on the polls, the polls are so interesting because the most recent poll that we have the cnn/orc poll, shows obama with a little bit of a lead over romney. >> most of the polls in ohio show consistently the president between two and four points. ohio is interesting. the unemployment there below the rest of the country. so the economic argument in ohio

hasn't been about good economy/bad economy. they kind of microtargeted which is why the romney campaign focused on the issue of coal for instance. hitting the issue of coal hard. >> and the microtargeting is so interesting because every state is different. it has a different economic fingerprint, if you will. if you look at florida, where housing is a very big deal in florida. in florida it's been kind of a pretty stubborn unemployment rate. i think it's still stuck near where it was before. 8.7% today. that's exactly where it was when the president took office. it's come down from the peaks, but still basically where the president took office. and then in virginia you've got an unemployment rate that is also essentially gone up and come back down and it's essentially flat in virginia, too. it also depends on if there's a republican governor, as well. >> that's one of the very interesting things about the political dynamic. each of these states has a republican governor who is a key surrogate for mitt romney. that governor is unwilling to make the economic argument that times are awful because they're in office right now. so it's -- >> you can't say doom and gloom if you're trying to run for

re-election later. let me ask you sheila about what you have said with both candidates. you've said you're disappointed with both. >> i don't think either one of them has given us details about what they'll do in the next four years. what the economic plan is. i don't think they've been honest about acknowledging the serious problems and the hard choices we have to make. on the issue of financial reform which is near and dear to my heart, neither has really made that a priority. and the reason we still have these economic struggles is because of the financial crisis and i'm concerned we still don't have a stable financial system. and if we don't have that we won't have a sustained economy. >> many people will say it's, it's small business that drives the american economy. so if you can put all your energy and effort into small business then you can fix the american economy. sounds like they're saying actually it's the banks. >> well, it's -- >> heavily drives job growth. but republicans still have a hard time getting credit these days. and you still have a lot of risk averse banks. a lot never had to clean up

their balance sheets. industry policy, frankly, is also exacerbating the problem, you get a very low return on your loans when you make them, in a certain economic environment you throw out these issues and it's weighing heavily on why we don't have more credit extension for small businesses which would be a driver of job growth. >> grover norquist was talking about president reagan and sort of highlighting which i think is very much president reagan's reputation of being a big tax cutter, and tax rate was very high before he came into office. and he did cut the tax rate. but he also raised taxes. i mean, he raised it in '82, '83, '84, '95, and got rid of tax loopholes. what do you think of what grover norquist has done in terms of the fiscal cliff and having everybody sign a pledge or whoever wants to, sign a pledge that they will not raise taxes, or put the taxes on the table? >> i don't think it's helpful. we need people to come together

and start torque working together and have flexibility in these negotiations. i don't know the difference between raising rates and raising revenues. there's a lot of inefficiency in our taxes. an inefficient tax code, the resources, closing loopholes, even if it raises revenues is not something people should be against. >> we're going to continue to talk about that -- let me talk about -- she's a democrat. >> you know, i have a lot of confidence, we probably don't agree on a lot of the fiscal issues but on financial reform we do. most importantly i think she's the person who is going to be independent and do what is in the interest of the state of massachusetts. and we need more independent thinkers like that in washington. people who will be against special interest. this much lobbying is also

really impairing the ability to decision make. >> michael bloomberg is supporting scott brown in that race for exactly the same reason because he said he supports independent thinkers. >> i think they do have two good candidates. but i know elizabeth well and i think she will be independent. i think if you look at her sources of campaign support, she's got a huge base of small donors. she really is smart and she'll be a player from day one if she gets elected. looks like she will. >> out on the edge supporting a democrat. >> for the first time -- >> yes, yes, yes. let's get to some other stories making news. >> all right, soledad. hard numbers in the aftermath of superstorm sandy are just so great. 92 americans dead, 3.5 million power customers still in the dark. estimated losses up to $50 billion. a lot of residents if hard-hit staten island, new york, they're just very angry that the new york city marathon will still be held on sunday. the race actually starts on staten island, and they say resources should not be diverted

from the recovery efforts there. meanwhile homeland security secretary janet napolitano will visit staten island later today. nearly half of the city's 41 victims died in that borough and cleanup has barely begun in the jersey shore town of seaside heights. the storm destroyed two piers that held amusement parks there. rides ended up in the ocean including a roller coaster. the obama and romney campaigns descending on battleground states in a campaign frenzy over the final four days. the president making three stops today in ohio, mitt romney delivers what his campaign is calling a closing argument speech in wisconsin. before heading to ohio himself for two late campaign rallies. u.s. intelligence officials are refuting a news report and insisting that cia officers were not barred from helping americans under attack in libya in september. four americans died in that assault on the consulate in benghazi including the u.s. ambassador christopher stevens. yesterday an official released a minute by minute time line on how the cia claimed it

responded. take a look at this lab, retrieving some fresh sushi you might say outside seattle. every year the river there floods while the salmon are spawning. they end up swimming not just upstream but across the street. i'm still in awe of the lab. one of the new places where drivers have to swerve -- pretty impressive. >> wow. >> that's hilarious. that's funny. still ahead this morning on "starting point," barrier beach community of southern new jersey trying to cope with this. that's sand. in their homes. we're going to take you there to talk about how the people who survived sandy are now coping with the aftermath. that's straight ahead. where others fail, droid powers through.

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welcome back, everybody. you're watching "starting point." the barrier beach communities along the jersey shore are among those hardest-hit by hurricane sandy. while many people did follow the orders to evacuate, there were some who chose to stick it out. from long beach island, new jersey, hey jim, good morning. >> good morning to you, soledad. an icy wind is cutting across this largely abandoned island. the only people who are here are construction workers, emergency crews, and the national guard,

as well as police. residents have mostly abandoned the island. there are a few, a few holed up who refuse to leave, including a 93-year-old woman, we are told. but there's no gas on this island. there's no electricity on this island. we came here in the cold, darkness, and there wasn't a light to be seen almost anywhere except the emergency headquarters that's been set up for the people who are trying to put this island back together again. 18 miles long. some 18,000 homes. and all of them, all the owners, waiting to see how much damage they sustain. a lot of wind damage, some water damage, of course, but not the heavy kind of damage we've seen in some of the other areas here along the jersey shore. at the same time the residents who want to get out here have been told that it will be a matter of days until they are able to come out here. as we said, they're trying to secure the area, to make it safe. many of the roads are impassable

because of the sand. and there are some earth movers that are out this morning trying to push that sand out of the way. when it's possible, authorities are going to allow people to come back and inspect their properties. but right now the national guard and the police have it completely sealed off. an abandoned island. an entire island today. >> jim, can i ask you a quick question? we're looking at these aerial pictures. can you throw that back up again of the sand in the homes. how deep is that? i can't tell if it's a foot or three feet of sand that's just gone -- >> could be five feet in some areas. there's a lot of sand that's shifted. it's just -- sandy just blew that right across the island. with it came a lot of water, as well. the water has receded in all the areas that i have seen. i haven't seen the entire island yet. but we're hoping to do that. but you're right, the roads are impassable. our vehicles can't get through some of these roads. and that's why residents have to be patient in order to wait and

see. a lot of them say, you know, the longer it sits there with water in it, there could be more damage. people are working as fast as they can to get them, to allow them to come in and help put things back to the. soledad? >> you can imagine what people would not be patient. jim clancy. those pictures are so dramatic. again it's salt water. so that just destroys everything. if you want more information about superstorm sandy or what you can do to help those who have been affected go to cnn.sop >> caller: impact. it's a great way to be able to help people out who desperately need your help. ahead on "starting point" our coverage continues. we're looking at the final jobs report before voters go to the polls just four days from now. it's due out in less than an hour. we're going to talk about how it could impact the election. that's straight ahead.

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welcome back to "starting point" everyone. a quick look at some of the top stories this morgue. former penn state president graham spanier and two other ex-penn state officials now facing charges that they conspired to cover up years of child sex abuse by former football coach jerry sandusky. prosecutors say spanier, ex-athletic director tim curley and gary schultz will each be arraigned on charges including perjury, conspiracy and endangering the welfare of children.

meanwhile it is the end of the line for nasa's space shuttle program. today the shuttle "atlantis" will officially be retired. but, this time obstruction of justice, endangerment of children. no high profile, parades or anything like that, "atlantis" will be towed over to kennedy space center where it will be on display. could tip the balance in the favor of one candidate or another. christine has a look at the role of the jobs in the election picture. >> tipping the candidate is such a great way to put it. each candidate will look at the job chart that they prefer to look at. because there's so much data in there that they can spin. let's take a look first at two charts that the president's supporters will focus on, saying that this shows he's doing a good job. national unemployment rate has come back down to 7.8%, right where it was when he took office. february 2009 we had a big stimulus that took a while to

get that money pushed out into the economy. the unemployment rate still rose to 10%, but is declining. you'll hear the president's supporters say again and again when he took office, he inherited a disasterative jobs front from the bush administration and went from 800,000 jobs being lost in the beginning of his presidency to creating jobs for two years in a row. those are the two charts that favor the president. how about the two charts that the supporters of mitt romney like to look at? 7.8%, unemployed workers, people that have stopped locking, but would look if they could. they're discouraged and not looking and people who are working part time. here is another one you'll hear from supporters of governor romney. you'll hear people talk about the labor force participation right. sheila knows a lot about this one as well. lowest since 1981. basically it means that the percentage of the civilian working age population that's looking for a job or in a job

working is the lowest since 1981. that has not been improving. the president can talk about 7.8% unemployment, but look at these bigger, longer term numbers, they're not getting better. those are the two ways you spin these numbers today. >> what does it say 63 something percent, what do you think of that number? >> it's very distressing. some of it is related to the age and population, but a lot of it is due to discouraged workers dropping out or going back to school. they're taking themselves out of the labor force. it's very discouraging. the unemployment rate is also another number, even though they're still looking but have been out of work for six months, it's very hard to get them back into the workforce. that number is coming down a bit. >> what do you think is the right answer? there's a whole side that says cut taxes. there's a soid that says don't cut taxes. some say cut spending, whether it's military, food stamps, f a

fema. if you were the president, what would you -- >> if i'm a dictator -- president has to have support from congress to get this all done, too. you broaden the base of the tax code, reduce rates a bit but you have to pick up revenue on the tax code and on the spending side you need to get entitlement spending under control. welfare is a problem, medicare, you're not going to have enough money to pay the benefits. social security has a little longer timeframe but payroll cuts are exacerbating the problem. and defense spending has to be on the table, too. >> you gleamed all the critical -- >> if you're going to have an agreement, republicans are going to have to give on tax revenues and democrats are going to have to give on entitlement spending. it's as simple as that. >> it is simple. >> it is real simple. i have repeatedly in the past

been in favor of bull simpson. it would have been nice to do it. if we kept kicking the can down the road, the debt has grown bigger and bigger. the longer this goes on, the worse the problem gets. and the more the debt goes up. >> you see congress taking a trench on either side -- a lot of people disliked grover's pledge because they feel like it makes everyone feel more entrenched. you talk about independent spirit. a lot of times independent spirits don't necessarily come to the table in conversation. >> you need people who will serve in elected positions and understand their responsibility to govern. they need to make decisions. we have serious fiscal problems, serious economic problems. i'm for -- i think things that create jobs and long-term vul like infrastructure improvements, job training programs. >> didn't the stimulus under obama create jobs? the number being thrown around is sort of 1.8 million.

>> that is the number thrown around but a lot of it -- we didn't get anything of permanent benefit from the stimulus spending. >> it was a band-aid. >> it was a band-aid, short term pop. lined consumer pockets through tax cuts or rebates. you know, it was not things that we got long term value on like infrastructure improvements or job training. and i think if we do additional stimulus spending, we need to think long term. spending money now if we're truly investing in our future but if we're just try ing ing t stimulate consumer spending short term -- >> as we head into our next hour, much more on the jobs report. 9:00 eastern time, christine and ali will have a one-hour special going in depth on the report and its economic and political impacts. continued comprehensive coverage of the jobs report. robert gibbs is joining us this morning, obama's campaign senior adviser. greg w lachlt den will be with

us, harvard university and politics professor ken rogoff joins us as well. president obama: there's just no quit in america... and you're seeing that right now. over five million new jobs. exports up forty one percent. home values... rising. our auto industry... back. and our heroes are coming home. we're not there yet, but we've made real progress and the... last thing we should do is turn back now. here's my plan for the next four years:

making education and training a national priority; building on our manufacturing boom; boosting american-made energy; reducing the deficits responsibly by cutting where... we can, and asking the wealthy to pay a little more. and ending the war in afghanistan, so we can... do some nation-building here at home. that's the right path. so read my plan, compare it to governor romney's... and decide which is better for you. it's an honor to be your president... and i'm asking for your vote... so together, we can keep moving america forward. i'm barack obama and i approve this message.

a

. good morning, everybody. you're watching starting point. the crucial employment report, the most employment report of the obama administration, just four days till election day.

hiring sbun employment numbers could give fuel to both president obama and also to governor romney, depending how it comes out. the report also has a significant meaning for all of us and our money as well. we're covering the story from all angles. expert insight from christine romans. ali velshi joins us from ohio. erin burnet, candy crowley, alison kosik, brianna keilar and miguel marquez. greg walden will be our guest, ken r gochlt off. sheila bair, former chair of the fdic is sticking around. we're talking about sandy's destruction, unfortunately, it's far from over. pretty desperate situation for millions of folks are still in the cold and the dark. many don't have food or shelter. the gas lines just completely out of control. friday, november 2nd. special edition of starting point begins right now.

welcome, everybody. christine romans is with us. erin burnet is with us as well. she's host of "out front." and host of cnn's state of the union, candy crowley. ali velshi is in ohio this morning. john berman, anchor of "early start" sticks around. president of americans for tax reform, joining us this morning. nice to have all of you. i want to welcome our national viewers who are joining us as well this morning. lots to get to. half an hour away from the most important report. i don't think that's overstating it, right? >> this will show what the biggest labor market, the biggest economy in the world is doing and what the expectation

is from 13 economists, 7.9% unemployment rate would be up slightly and 125,000 jobs added. the trend is what's really important to watch here. this is the trend for the unemployment rate. back in january 2009, the unemployment rate was 7.8%. that's when the president took office. we had a stimulus. we had an unemployment rate that still went to 10%. now it's been coming down and it's back down at 7.8%. there's psychology in these numbers that is important here. it will tell us what happened in the months and confirm where that trend is going but also just a few days before the election and really if you see a number below 7.8%, this is going to be something that is going to be advantage obama. something below 7.8%, assuming conspiracy theorists don't go bompgers and anything above 7.8% is romney advantage. >> but the prediction is up slightly. who knows if that prediction

will bear out. you can tick up and still be below the 8%, which christine says is the line. what is the impact of that? >> i have to say i agree with christine. that 8% becomes psychologically important. if it's going in the right direction, moving down like it was with ronald reagan. if it's going the other direction, it becomes a problem. >> the wropg direction but still below 8? >> i think 7.9 will be a nonevent. >> me, too. >> what about political implications of this? not just in terms of spin but obviously swing states where this will be critical. >> i think it will be important to undecided voters. by definition, they're undecided, they don't have a sense of how healthy the recovery is. i think it feeds into the romney argument that this is sluggish growth and particularly if we see, you know, labor force participation going down again, part-time work, low-wage work, that all feeds into the romney argument. i think there's a lot riding on

this one with the undecided voters and the race is very close. that's important. >> ali velshi, hunting down the undecided voters. you're in a state where it's going to be critical in this election. talk to me a little bit about some of those individual states, how they're going to be crunching these numbers. the big picture may be less relevant. >> reporter: ohio certainly is. it's hard to find undecided voters in ohio. most of the democrats have already vote d. really i've been tweeting out, if you're undecided, come and see me. guess what, i'm standing alone. there are a few undecided voters in key critical state and they may actually carry this election for somebody one way or another. in a state like ohio where the unemployment rate -- i hate the unemployment rate. you heard me say this for years. i want to punch it in the face. it is such a hard to understand number. but the unemployment rate in this state is substantially lower than the national average. ohio, which has struggled for decades, got burned on steel, then on autos.

finally they've seen some improvement. and the republican governor of this state wants to take credit for that. president obama wants to take credit for that. it's edging toward president obama but in all of these key big undecided states like virginia, like florida, like ohio, we are statistically very close. y yes, president obama has a bit of an edge in most of the polls here in ohio, but it's still statistically relevant. two things have to happen. one, they have to get out the vote. both these organizations have to get out the vote. there is that small group of voters that can still be convinced. today will be influential in convincing them, soledad, about which of these presidential candidates have a better vision and better ability to guide the future, all for president obama. is this working or is it not? >> interesting. let's get right to candy crowley. i think ali said something that was very interesting. you have this among republican governors where the states have done okay, have done well-ish in

the slow recovery and so who gets the credit? in a way they're in a position where they can't say states are doing terribly because it doesn't help them in the narrative. and they can't say the states are doing great because it doesn't helm them in their narrative. >> it's been tough. all three run by republican governors. it's been tough but what they've done, for instance, when you look at virginia and the campaigning that's been done there a lot of what governor romney has focused on is what the fiscal cliff will mean for the defense industry and he has blamed huge oncoming cuts in the defense department, which northern virginia is heavily reliant on. and put that on president obama. when you go to ohio, you hear a lot about the coal industry,

when romney is on the attack. so they've taken the economy and done microarguments about it as opposed to, oh, boy, the economy is really terrible here. so it has been tough but it has been doable in take iing some o the economic things in a particular state and using those as arguments. and saying, by the way, listen, your unemployment rate is great here. let's look at the kind of jobs that's being create d. let's talk about wage stagnation, that kind of thing. >> everyone looks at the big number. you really need to drill into the report to see what kind of jobs and what is bow neath those numbers. it's something that grover norquist, who is joining us, has said as well. you say you're more interested in another number. >> yes. the question is a lot of people have left the workforce, several percentage points, several million americans. it's a little bit odd for the president to say see my number is 7.9 or 7.8. it's not as bad as it was a year

ago where millions of americans know they're looking for work and they've either got part-time work or no work at all or they've given up looking for work. the real unemployment number, 14.7%, you're look iing at peop who are trying to get jobs, can't get jobs. you can give them all the numbers they want. they know they're paying twice as much for gasoline than they did when obama got elected. policy of higher energy prices, which he brags about. he thinks that's a good idea. >> when you mention the gas, christine romans rolled her eyes. we'll get back to christine on the gas thing. that's a whole other conversation. but i want to bring in robert gibbs. i think you answer some interesting points and i want to pose those questions to him. >> good morning. >> if these numbers -- we've been talking about that line, if these numbers are ohioer than predicted, which is 7.9%, how devastating is this for the campaign? it's bad, suspect it? >> i don't want to get into the

prediction business. we'll know soon enough. if you look at what we're likely to see is the 32nd consecutive month of job growth. we went through an economic calamity that this country hasn't been through in 80 years. we spent four years digging out of that huge hole. we've added in that 32 months probably -- more than 5 million jobs. we'll know exactly how many after we see the report. but we're moving this country forward. we're adding good-paying jobs. we're adding security to the middle class. and, you know, what mitt romney wants to do is go back to the failed economic theory of tax cuts showered on the rich that somehow sprimnkle down to the middle class. the problem is that that theory has never worked. it's what got us into this mess. >> you say creating good-paying jobs to bolster the middle class. if you look at the actual jobs that have been created,

christine -- keep me honest on this, a lot of those jobs are not what people would consider the high-pay iing jobs. >> under $14 an hour. most of the jobs that are coming back are much lower paid than the jobs that were lost. >> second point of that -- i'll let you answer, you talked about those 32 months of private sector growth. there's a little chart this i can hold up. i don't have a graphic. the one that's next to it, the public sector growth -- you can't really see it. it goes like this, which can't be good. public sector really has been shedding jobs. how much of a problem is spinning that message? >> well, it's a really -- it's a bad trend if you're thinking about wanting to strengthen the economy for the long term. a lot of those public sector jobs are teachers in the classroom. i don't think -- nobody but mitt romney believes that we ought to have fewer teachers in our classrooms. barack obama believes we need more teachers in the classroom, reduce class sizes and make sure

we're preparing a workforce that is capable of doing the jobs that we are bringing back from overseas, the manufacturing jobs we're adding. i will say this i don't have the statistics in front of me on the wages. we've added more manufacturing jobs to this economy in the last few years than have been added since the mid 1990s. look, i know there are some -- grover will be part of the gloom and doom caucus. and i'll let him play that role but, look, we're moving this economy forward. we're strengthening it. are we where we want to be? absolutely not. that's because we had a huge hole to dig ourselves out of. >> robert gibbs, vr adviser from the obama campaign. nice to see you. thank you for talking with us. >> thanks for having me. >> beside the report, other stories are making news. john berman has a look at those for us. good morning. it's been nearly four days since superstorm sandy has sclamed into the east coast. nearly 3.5 million customers along the eastern seaboard still

without power this morning. the economic loss is staggering. estimated $30 to $50 billion. rescue agencies still trying to get food and water to those in need. gasoline is in short sploi. long lines a common sight at many gas stations around this region and the anger is starting to spill over, unfortunately. a new complication in sandy's wake, long lines for fuel and not just for cars. we're talking about generators also. frustration turning into anger and anger into rage. one man was charged for pulling a gun on another driver in queens who tried to cut in line. can you believe that? the shortages may not end for another week. vice president shifting from campaign mode to comedy mode last night, ratelled off david letterman's top ten list. here are a few top ten good things about early voting. this, according to joe biden. >> if you vote early you don't have to pay taxes.

i'm sorry. i'm being told that's not accurate. >> that's not accurate. he's being told that's not accurate. >> of course, there's the open bar. >> that's right, the open bar. >> joe biden for you, ladies and swre. >> letterman absolutely dying of laughter. john, thank you. still ahead on "starting point" talking about today's unemployment report. it will be crucial to both campaign campaigns, both political campaigns. you just heard from the obama campaign. we'll hear from a romney supporter greg walden, up next. got to take a break. we're back in a moment. [ man ] hello!!!! hello!!!! [ all ] ohh! that is crazy! are you kidding me? let me see!

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welcome back, everybody. just minutes away from what could be a bombshell to the presidential campaign. the october jobs report comes out in about 13 minutes. romney supporter, greg walden, nice to see you, sir. >> nice to be with you. >> appreciate that. unemployment could tick up, they're saying to 7.9%. sluggish, slow, but job growth. what do you think of this number? do you think that's probably accurate? >> i have no idea whether it's accurate or not. as you say, the economy is sluggish, it's slow. it's not what we were promised. the president said if they just enacted his plan, unemployment rate would be at 5.3% right now. that's 8.5 million americans that don't have work that were told follow the president's plan, you'll have work. and they don't have it. so, i mean, this is not the kind of recovery you expect. it's not what we've had coming

out of any other recession. you've had over 6 million americans on long-term unemployment that, at its peak, is almost double any other president going clear back to ronald reagan's days. i don't think the policies have worked as promised and pledged. >> president obama has written an op-ed for cnn, as did governor romney. i'll read you a little bit of what the president wrote. the wars in iraq are over, osama bin laden is dead. our businesses have created more than 5 million new jobs in the last 2 1/2 years, home values, 401(k)s are rising, we're less dependent on foreign oil than any time in the last 20 years and the american auto industry is back. this has been what has been accomplished. sounds god. >> i was in the radio business, i workd with small business owners all my life. it's not what you're feeling out on the ground when you're around the country. i've been all over my country, all over my district. we've got 10%, 11% unemployment

in my state of oregon, in my district. they're not feeling this. they're talking about how families are having to restructure and live at a lower level. i heard some of the discussion about the jobs that are created are under $14. some parts of this country, they would love to have $14 an hour jobs. they're not even seeing those. this is not what america can be. governor romney and paul ryan have a plan to create 12 million new jobs. we can use our energy resources more than we are today. i was in north dakota a while back. they've hired 30,000 people there to work in the oil field. keystone pipeline had been approved you would have 20,000 new american jobs coming. they would have a pipeline to bring that oil out of the balkan fields as well as out of canada, down through the country. we would have construction, jobs going. we can do a lot better than what we are. >> thank you for talking with us this morning. we'll appreciate it. >> delighted to be with you. thank you. >> thank you. delighted. i like that. still ahead on "starting

point," we have to take a short break.

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visit progressive.com today. welcome back, everybody. we're about six minutes away from that highly anticipated october employment report. just four days from now the election. it would definitely have an impact on both president obama and mitt romney's campaigns. i want to welcome ken rogoff to our panel, harvard university professor of economics and public policy. we'll begin, sir, though, with christine romans. let's talk about how they crunch these numbers. >> the jobs report is actually two sprit surveys, unemployment

rate comes from a survey of 60,000 households. the job creation number comes from a survey of 141,000 businesses. to get the unemployment rate, 200 census workers interview 60,000 households in person and over the phone. everyone over the age of 16 is classified as employed, unemp y unemployed or not in the labor force. from that then the government extrapolates the unemployment rate. job creation number comes from another sample, sample of 141,000 businesses. they tell the government how many workers they have on their payroll. like the household survey, the sample is meant to include the whole u.s., including offices, stores. both surveys look the a particular week or pay period usually around the 12th day of the month. this month it was the week of october 7th to october 13th. households were contacted the following week to find out if they were working or looking for

a job from that week the 7th to the 13th. businesses submitted information for roughly the same period. once all these numbers are in, the labor department and its st sta statisticians give them to the president's economic advisers the day before they are released. in just about four or five minutes we'll get the number from the labor department. i'm going to listen now. when i've got it, i'll let you know. >> you go do the call. we talk about this number and that line, 8.0%. why is that line so critical? >> it's more of a psychological line than anything else. it's also interesting, as christine points out, the two different surveys. people tend to pay attention to the unemployment rate. it makes sense it's the headline number. but the most accurate reflection of what's really happening is that payroll number, what businesses report. and that, of course, has been anemic for a long time. last month, despite that big

drop in the unemployment rate, we have seen upward revisions from prior months. sluggish is still sort of a way to describe the labor market. but it is that payroll number to watch. >> what do you think could make it less sluggish? less morbid? >> uncertainty with the market, fiscal cliff. the debate isn't, you know, whether you should regulate or not regulate, whether you should have a fiscal responsibility plan or not. but make some decisions, let us know what the future is going to look like. what is health care going to look like? what are payroll taxes going to be? what is the corporate code going to look like? do we have a long-term plan to get these deficits under control? people just know what the rules are, what the game plan, they can follow it and react to it. there's a huge amount of uncertainty. >> i'm going to ask you to join us. do you think that uncertainty, as sheila is saying, is playing a huge role in all of this?

i might interrupt you when these numbers come out. carry on. i'll jump in when the numbers come in from christine. >> the uncertainty is huge. you see it from business investment which is very weak. you're sitting there. there's about to be an election, which could mark a huge shift in policy. you don't know which way it's going to go. you're going to wait until you do a big investment, big hiring. as she wiila said, all these uncertainties about how health care is going to be resolved, fiscal cliff, a lot of uncertainties holding back the economy at the moment. hopefully some of it will get resolved soon. >> i'm going to read a quote, grover, from you to everybody. you said this we have to dramatically reduce the cost of defense, whether there's a sequester or not. maybe that focuses their attention. that is a healthful thing. some would say this leads us all to the fiscal cliff and playing that game of chicken basically on the highway. don't you think? >> it's important we reduce government spending across the

board and conservatives need to look at defense spending in the same way we look at other kinds of spending and if it's wasteful, let's do less of it. it's very important. we've had an explosion of spending under obama. bush spent too much money, but obama did it on steroids. you know, $1 trillion of stimulus spending, $5 trillion of debt. he is bankrupting the country. we're talking about these numbers on unemployment, but the damage -- the long term, permanent damage done to america by obama's spending spree and the regulatory -- when you say there's uncertainty, there's a lot of uncertainty. there are thousands and thousands of pages of regulations that this administration is not putting out before the election because it's going to be so devastating. the economy, they don't want people to see it yet. >> hang on. >> the damage from obamacare doesn't kick in for another year. >> four days before the election but it also comes after a very interesting week politically.

a one in which a will the of people think president obama may have stemmed whatever momentum mitt romney had. president obama may be going into this week, with the hurricane, the way he handled it, and swing state poll iing which consistently shows him in the lead. a lot of people think president obama has the wind at his back. the jobs report may be the last opportunity for mitt romney to change the momentum yet once again. we've seen it changed so many times. >> let's go to candy crowley. of course, when you look at polls, it's mitt romney who gets the advantage, when people are asked about what's the thing you care about the most and who would do the better job, it's the economy and mitt romney. >> it is. but when you ask folks that other question that pollsters always look at, who understands the life or needs of people like you, president obama always scores higher on that. so there's kind of this macro picture. people look at mitt romney and say i think actually he would be better fixing the economy as a whole. but then when you ask them who

understands you, who understands what's going on in your life, they say president obama. i think that obviously there is some conflict there. but closer to home you get, i think as a candidate the better your chance. now i can also tell you that the romney campaign is looking at its own numbers, all the numbers we see and they still see a clear path, they say, to victory. as do both sides. it's one of those things where, as we all know, it comes down to who has the biggest -- who has the best turnout model in which states. and that's just something that's not really knowable until tuesday evening. >> it always comes down to that, right? the poll that really matters is the poll that happens on tuesday evening. candy, thank you. let's get to ali velshi. i have to warn you, i may be cutting you off in two seconds. we're waiting to -- ali, wait a minute. >> we've got the number right now. it's 7.9%. >> 171,000 jobs created.

171,000 jobs decrcreated. 7.9% is the unemployment rate. so the jobs -- the jobless rate is exactly as they expected. the job creation was a little bit better. there are some revisions in these numbers, we're told, from the our producer at the labor department. revisions in this number that are actually good. so i'm going to toss it back to you with some more details. but this is a number that is exactly in line on the unemployment rate but better in the job creation. as ali has pointed out, that job creation number is a number that a lot of people really watch. that's from businesses, what businesses say they're doing. >> how do people understand that in some ways? erin, we'll start with you. you've had eight seconds to analyze these numbers. >> right. there's a lot of numbers in here you want to look at, earnings and things like that. 7.9%, that's fine. 171, i'll highlight. that's a good number relative to what we've seen in recent months. i don't have the numbers in front of me. it's above the rate you need to actually keep up with population growth and people entering the workforce. we're in a big hole.

we're not anywhere near that. that's a solid number, 171, would be my initial take without the background data. >> grover norquist, erin says solid number. what do you think? >> 7.9% unemployment, these are all lousy numbers. when you add in the fact that a lot of people aren't in the workforce, as we've been discussing, 2% of the population has left the workforce. that's why the unemployment numbers aren't at over 10%, which is the real unemployment number of over 10% of people who want to work and aren't working. this has been a real problem. and it's not only that the economy is weak and had four years of a very poor economy, even the recovery part of obama's administration has been weaker than any recovery since the 1930s. $5 trillion to get a lousy economy. >> let me interrupt you for a second. sheila bair, do you think he has a point, $5 trillion for a lousy economy or do you say, people will look at that 171, and that

is -- in some ways this is about a narrative out of this report? >> right. 171 is a good number. woef been averaging 150,000. that is a very good number. the 7.9% is probably a slight negative for mr. obama. it doesn't suggest continued improvement. that number has a lot of falses as we'll discuss. job quality again. but -- the 171 itself is a good number. >> robert gibbs, mr. rogoff called mr. norquist mr. doom and gloochlt would you say he is doom and gloom or a realist that is taking a very clear look at the dire straits of the economy without -- and how he sees it? >> there's a forward looking and backward looking component. i think in the backward looking component, i think that when you have a decent cries like this you cannot compare it to 1982.

you cannot compare this to ronald reagan. you have to look at really deep, systemic financial crisis around the world that the u.s. has had. and then the recovery is still tepid, but not compared to those. it's much better than a lot of countries have been doing since 2007 and it's better than earlier united states recoveries when you look at unemployment when we've had deep banking crises. that said, nobody is happy with this. we would like to have a path to faster growth going forward. >> ken rogoff. let's get right to ali velshi. i want to ask you a question. under the establishment survey data, we start break out the actual jobs, nonfarm payment, health care, retail, leisure and hospitality. what is the one you look at most closely? >> reporter: in terms at looking

at a recovery, business services and professional work because we're not manufacturing as much. manufacturing is important. the other thing you want to lock at is health care. it's been a growing area for the entire recession. we've gained health care jobs. those are key. revisions to august and september. they are much better. sheila just said over 150 is better. it's not great. it's better. august we thought we gained 142,000 jobs, it's now been revised up to 184,000 jobs. september, we thought we gained 114. it's not a great number. it's now been revised upward to 148,000 jobs. >> ali, let me stop you for a second. tell me if i'm wrong for august it was revised from 142 to 192,000 non -- >> 192, you're right. you are right. i misread that. to 192. so these are now in the vicinity of strong. both president obama and mitt romney have talked about 12

million jobs in four years. that would be 3 million a year, 250,000 a month. now we're edging up to 200,000 in august. we're now getting into the vicinity of real job creation that could actually have an effect on people. that's what's important here. as you know, i have real problems with the unemployment number being bandied around as a political football. it's hard to understand. it is actually a moving target. grover gets stuck on it. the fact is that this job creation number and wages earned and the type of jobs are all more important and this is quoit positive. i don't mean that politically. i mean this is good for america. >> let's talk about what you raised. i want to bring in candy crowley for this. you know, ali, candy, said that manufacturing is what he wants to look at. when i read what they say about manufacturing, manufacturing employment changed little in october. on net, manufacturing employment has shown little change since april. that has to be a little black cloud in what i think some people are saying are good, decent numbers.

>> well, it is. and especially since the president has always focused on manufacturing, talking about bringing manufacturing jobs back. because, of course, that rings to the god old days. you could have a great middle class life when there were great manufacturing jobs, inside manufacturing plants and that way of living has, for decades kind of gone away. however, i think what you're -- that does take away from one of the president's talking points when you talks about, and we've added good manufacturing jobs. they still have added some, just not since april is what i think you just said. what you have here politically is more fuel for the same fire. i think the president has said we're headed in the right direction but it's not enough. he has been saying that for four years. you'll hear mitt romney say they've spent a whole lot of money and we don't have much to show for it. this is a weak recovery. we don't want to stay on this slow road to recovery. i can do this better. he has been saying that for a

year and a half. i think we just have both sides saying yes, here is our latest report and it proves exactly what i was just saying. >> interesting. let's go back to christine romans. i want to flag something in this report on the front page, saying that the unemployment for blacks increased to 14.3%. >> it did. and most of the worker groups were unchanged or fell a little bit -- unchanged rather. 14.3% for blacks. for adult men, 7. %, for women 7.2%. for teenagers almost 24%. we've been watching these worker groups. black american workers, for black americans the unemployment rate has been about double, even in good times. there's a structural problem there that many poem have said the recession and recovery since the recession have only made worse. that's something we're closely watching. we'll be looking at factory jobs, a ladder to the middle class, jobs that have been gutted really in the past 20 years. that's something that is a very

big -- not month to month. this is a longer term, multi-president kind of issue that has to be tackled and the recession, quite frankly, set us back on that. in terms of where we were seeing the job growth, professional and business services tend to be higher paid jobs. computer systems designers and engineers, those tend to be very god jobs. growth there. different kinds of technology, information technology. and also retail trade and leisure and hospitality. those are lower-paying jobs. those tend not to be jobs that you can send a kid to college on. often they tend to be part-time jobs as well. so, manufacturing and ali is right, especially in those swing states. health care jobs that have been growing, it's these knowledge jobs that have been growing, there's good demand for. we talk about these numbers, too. when you talk to ceos, soledad, the thing they say is we can't find workers with the right skills for our jobs. politically, we're talking about we need more jobs. but ceos say we don't have the

right workers. we have the jobs, not the right workers. that become an education story. >> the numbers we've been talking about, most politically charged numbers here, labor force participation rate that rose 578,000 in october and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.8%. so there is movement in that number that you were talking about before. how much is that really? >> so that is the number that grover norequivalent has -- nor quist has been talking about. we're talking consumer confidence that was strong this week, guys, looking at their 401(k)s. they're a little bit better. revisions ali was talking about the last several months. they're hearing all of this and some discouraged workers are saying i'm going to try again. they're going to try to get a job. >> when you look at this, everybody at the table is furiously taking notes on their

report. what do you look to flag? >> ali and christine have pointed out some of it, and john. there are some good things when you look at a participation rate. obviously still low. you see in row tail and other areas hiring. long term unemployed, little change. these are people that have not had a job for 27 weeks or more. you're not seeing a change there yet. other two things we look at are people working longer weeks? that generally means you'll hire more people. workweek is generally unchanged. income growth that has lagged so significantly over the past decade or more and you saw that edge down a little bit. there are definitely good things in here. the headline, no question, is good. upper revisions for the past two months when you add those together, revision from 142 to 192, 114 to 148, that's very good. overall take will be very good. when you're saying is it really getting stronger, will people start to earn more, will we see an uptick, you're not really seeing that. >> as erin just said, 142 to

192, an august revision. september revised upward from 114,000 to 148,000. is this a number that people like yourself or economists crunch and say this is interesting or does it really have an impact on those of us who are not crunching these very numbers and looking back to past months for their statement of employment figures? >> well, these numbers are so rough. and there's so much uncertainty around them that they do keep getting revised. we do tend to look at the last few months, not just the current number, what the overall revisions and overall picture is more positive than it was. let's be clear, this is still a tepid recovery. this is a good, modest, good report in the context of still this very slow recovery. doesn't change the overall picture. i think politically, you know, it's probably slightly better for president obama, obviously, than if it had gone over 8%, the unemployment rate or we had seen

a big drop in jobs. from an economic point of view, it's modest improvement. it's not the kind of growth we need to get 12 million jobs over the next four years like both candidates are promising. it's not a game changer. >> candy crowley, i'm sure everyone is spinning this, trying to figure out the headline that they write. who -- i hate to talk about winning when you're talking about people's jobs and people's lives, but in terms of how it's sp spun, it will be a win and a lose. who do you think gets the momentum out of this? >> you know, i hate to put a damper on this, but we are at a point where i think you look at the undecideds -- we're not talking about nationwide undecideds. we're talking about undecideds inside these swing states. such a miniscule number. >> meaning what? how many? >> it depends on the state. it depends on like 2%, 3%, 4%,

around in there. and you get to a point on the weekend before an election where you begin to know that many of those undecideds are really the disgusteds and they may not show up on tuesday. you're going to see a portion of undecideds not show up. do people go into the voting booth still not knowing who they're going to vote for? i have talked to people who say that's exactly how they are. so insofar as this shifts them, i would assume that 171,000 sounds like the strongest i've heard in a while in terms of creating new jobs. you can still see it's a slow recovery. i thought these numbers and the people's feel for the economy have been baked into their choice for a long time. but if it's going to be an advantage, i'm assuming that it may be a slight advantage for president obama. but i honestly am not sure that this is going to move those figures in a way that we're going to notice. >> we've got to take a short

break. ahead on "starting point" we'll talk more about the 7.9% unemployment figure, 171,000 jobs crow ated in the month of october. we'll talk about the ripple effects on the presidential race, financial markets and the overall recovery. all that and much more. short wos a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people while investing billions improving everything from booking to baggage claim. we're raising the bar on flying and tomorrow we will up it yet again.

you are watching "starting point." we are digesting the important october jobs report. 171,000 jobs have been added, more than what was expected. unemployment rate 7.9%, ticked up from 7.8%. what about the impact on the presidential race with the election just four days away?

let's get to alison kosik at new york stock exchange. also in las vegas for us, talking about the folks who are unemployed and brianna keilar is in ohio. >> reporter: we're still awaiting reaction from both campaigns. you can almost already tell what they're going to say. you would expect the obama campaign to emphasize the steadiness of numbers and say it's no time to change course and you would expect governor romney to say this is a slow recovery, the number shows that and it is time to change course. overall, though, it seems unlikely that this will affect the collection. certainly obama's advantage that the number did not hit 8%, important hurdle that was cleared last month and undercut the romney campaign argument that 8% unemployment seemed to be the norm. but the real issue is battleground states like ohio, where i am now. unemployment here is significantly lower than the national average. it's 7% here.

it's like that in a number of other battleground states. and that really may be more of a determining factor, soledad. >> thanks, brianna. appreciate it. financial markets, what's the impact there? alison kosik has more for us. >> reporter: good morning, soledad. we watched futures before the report came out. they were lower. once the report was released you saw a small pop, at least with the dow, moved up about 40 points. that's a sign of optimism from the markets. it's not a great response, because a harsh rolity is that 171,000 jobs add ed is a good report but if you look at the overall trend, it's just not roaring ahead. we're at this point right now where the number of jobs being added every month is just not enough to keep up with population growth. it averages out to 157,000 jobs created every month. it's just not enough momentum in the jobs market. we're not gaining back enough jobs fast enough and in the right places. some people are saying this is more of a minimum wage recovery, meaning jobs in restaurants and retailers are adding jobs, but

that doesn't give income enough and makes it hard for a lot of people to pay the bills. >> let's go right to miguel marquez in las vegas this morning, talking about folks who are unemployed. grover norquist keeps coming back around to that number, which is a significant number of folks unemploy ed or underemployed. good morning. >> reporter: good morning. no place has been hit harder than las vegas and nevada, unemployment rate across the state is the highest in the country. we're on top of the stratosphere, traction in the state that has sunk $20 million in improvements in the past several years, started to higher in the last couple of months more than 100 people. this building right here, this is the strip, obviously, in las vegas. that big dark spot in the middle is the front blue hotel, $2.9 billion in investments. it has not been finished. it sat there for now almost a year unfinished. i talked to county officials and they say that is just getting past the point where they can

start construction on it again. so there is, across this county and this state guarded optimism that things are getting better. soledad? >> miguel, appreciate it. let me ask you a question. with this report now, the president has now created more jobs than lost. do you think this report now puts him over the edge in that? in terms of a narrative, we're talking about political spin out of this, that is important. alison said it's not adding enough. with the revisions up, is it adding enough? >> the average according to the government employment growth has averaged 157,000 a month. >> what do you need? >> 125 to 150 about. you're basically absorbing the new entrants into the workforce. you still have all those people that got shut out. you need to be creating more than this to be robustly growing and really fwroeg the economy. now we're starting to absorb new entrants into the workforce. >> i like to call it the hole. you can be back to where you are. but all the people when we were

losing jobs who were coming of age, copping to this country. imfwrags slowed down but it still happened. those people are all sitting out there. we've got more people living in this country. that's what we call the hole, that's what you have to dig out and start getting those people jobs. >> you were talking about the markets being messed up. alison was updating us on the markets. but it's a hot mess because with sandy -- i try. every day i get out here and try. how do you read those numbers that we're seeing from the markets, reaction from the market at a time that it was closed because of sandy? >> it's tough. there has been -- a lot of people are working in backup locations who are far away. it's going to be a muted day in some sense. but they're going to react to the payroll and react to what we've been pointing out, three months with this month and the past two that got revised up. >> we continue to watch all of it. our end point is up next. stay with us. you're watching "starting point." sine.

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okay. it's time for end point. rules to end point, short and tight. grover norquist, this is for you. couple of things i want to ask you about. two stats you spoke about when we start this had conversation have improve d a little bit. not much, but a little bit. underemployment 14%, labor participation, it's better. >> it's not even a dead cat bounce. half the people who graduated from college are either fully unemployed or grossly underemployed. younger people are looking at a future where there just aren't jobs or good-paying jobs.

if the obama people are happy about this, that's the most depressing thing i've heard. this is more of the same. what is he going to do to fix it? more debt, higher spending, higher taxes. we did that for the last four years and it hasn't made things better. we've got a declining standard of living and we're going to be paying for this debt forever. >> we appreciate you joining us, grover. >> sure. >> ken rogoff, are you still with us? what's your take away from -- i'm sorry, candy is next. what is the big takeaway politically from this, do you think? grover is like dead account bounce. sounds bad. >> it does sound bad. i think, again, this is fuel to the same fire that both the pr ez and the governor will come out and say, you see? i told you all along this was so, and this report is exactly what i was trying to tell you about. and i think they will both tell you that they have said all along that you shouldn't pay too much attention to one month. so i'm not going to pay too much attention to this one month.

i think probably folks have already figure this had into their decision for tuesday morning. >> sheila bair, you can look at a number and if it doesn't feel good, you've got 20 seconds. >> okay. i think the reality is the unemployment rate is now higher than it was when mr. obama took office, which will give mr. romney a talking point. i think it's a wash and won't have much impact. >> it's great to have all of you on our panel. erin, you've got a long day. thanks for coming in early for us. coming up monday on "starting point," we will be in our nation's capital at 5:00 am eastern time. full comprehensive coverage of the presidential election leading up to tuesday's vote. john will join me. christine will be with us as well. ahead this morning, christine romans and ali velshi have a one-hour special that focuses on the job report and what it means for the election and much more. that begins right now. see you monday, eve